S&P/ASX 200 Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
11.62%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
11.73%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
12.12%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 02:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 181% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 181% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0168 | 7.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.0725 | 5.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8407 | 79.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.1312 | 5.64*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0168 | 7.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0725 | 5.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8407 | 79.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1312 | 5.64*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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