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S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

28.93%

decreased by 1.14%

1 Week

29.54%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

31.51%

increased by 1.44%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 42% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1583
7.90***
αARCH0.1695
9.44***
βGARCH0.7687
66.24***
γleverage0.0720
2.33**

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1583
7.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1695
9.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7687
66.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0720
2.33**

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days