S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
28.93%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
29.54%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
31.51%
increased by 1.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 42% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1583 | 7.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.1695 | 9.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7687 | 66.24*** |
| γleverage | 0.0720 | 2.33** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1583 | 7.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1695 | 9.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7687 | 66.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0720 | 2.33** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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