V-Lab
S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
29.99%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
31.46%
increased by 2.35%
1 Month
33.37%
increased by 4.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 154% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0728 | 10.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7272 | 70.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1119 | 20.39*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.9023 | 2.77*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8597 | 3.87*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.856
Half-life:
4 days
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