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V-Lab

S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

29.97%

decreased by 3.11%

1 Week

32.13%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Month

35.05%

increased by 1.97%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 155% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0729
10.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7264
70.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1127
20.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.9034
2.76***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8603
3.86***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.856

Half-life:

4 days