V-Lab
S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
23.59%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Week
25.02%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
29.43%
increased by 4.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.40) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1702 | 7.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.1412 | 10.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8358 | 67.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.3971 | 2.65*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1702 | 7.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1412 | 10.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8358 | 67.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3971 | 2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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