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V-Lab

S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

23.59%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Week

25.02%

increased by 0.36%

1 Month

29.43%

increased by 4.77%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.40) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1702
7.16***
αARCH0.1412
10.24***
βGARCH0.8358
67.52***
γleverage0.3971
2.65***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1702
7.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1412
10.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8358
67.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3971
2.65***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days