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V-Lab
V-Lab

AEX-Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

12.61%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

12.96%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

14.08%

increased by 0.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 04:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0070
0.73
αARCH0.0937
9.55***
βGARCH0.8825
91.61***
γleverage0.5272
4.62***

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0070
0.73
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0937
9.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8825
91.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5272
4.62***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days