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V-Lab

AEX-Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

10.07%

increased by 0.26%

1 Week

10.63%

increased by 0.82%

1 Month

12.37%

increased by 2.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0071
2.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0939
38.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8820
363.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5305
18.42***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days