V-Lab
AEX-Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.07%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
10.63%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
12.37%
increased by 2.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0071 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0939 | 38.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8820 | 363.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5305 | 18.42*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices