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V-Lab

AEX-Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

12.22%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

12.71%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

13.90%

increased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8330
222.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1827
43.33***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0081
4.14***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0435
3.90***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9497
73.39***

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days