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V-Lab

AEX-Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

13.97%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

14.18%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

14.71%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8332
223.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1824
43.32***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0081
4.14***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0434
3.90***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9497
73.51***

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days