V-Lab
AEX-Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
9.96%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
10.45%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
11.44%
increased by 1.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8329 | 64.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.1825 | 12.40*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0083 | 2.30** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0445 | 2.19** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9485 | 41.90*** |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8329 | 64.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1825 | 12.40*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0083 | 2.30** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0445 | 2.19** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9485 | 41.90*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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