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V-Lab

AEX-Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

10.24%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

10.53%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

11.22%

increased by 0.63%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8330
64.29***
γleverage0.1821
12.39***
λ₁tau intercept0.0083
2.31**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0447
2.20**
λ₃tau persistence0.9482
41.87***

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8330
64.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1821
12.39***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0083
2.31**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0447
2.20**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9482
41.87***

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days