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V-Lab

Russell Midcap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

12.37%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

12.72%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

13.00%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC

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graph of Russell Midcap Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2004 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8562
72.01***
γleverage0.1855
10.92***
λ₁tau intercept0.0520
2.06**
λ₂forecast adj.0.3329
4.07***
λ₃tau persistence0.6229
6.60***

0.949

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8562
72.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1855
10.92***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0520
2.06**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3329
4.07***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6229
6.60***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days