V-Lab
Russell Midcap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
10.65%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
11.34%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
13.01%
increased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8531 | 254.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1927 | 44.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0190 | 8.83*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1195 | 10.96*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8649 | 68.07*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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