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V-Lab

Russell Midcap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

11.87%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

11.97%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Month

12.50%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell Midcap Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2004 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8562
72.01***
γleverage0.1855
10.92***
λ₁tau intercept0.0520
2.06**
λ₂forecast adj.0.3329
4.07***
λ₃tau persistence0.6229
6.60***

0.949

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8562
72.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1855
10.92***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0520
2.06**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3329
4.07***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6229
6.60***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days