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V-Lab

Russell Midcap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

11.75%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

12.27%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

13.65%

increased by 1.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Russell Midcap Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8531
254.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1927
44.64***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0190
8.83***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1195
10.96***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8649
68.07***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days