V-Lab
Russell Midcap Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
12.37%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
12.72%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
13.00%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8562 | 72.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.1855 | 10.92*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0520 | 2.06** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3329 | 4.07*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6229 | 6.60*** |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8562 | 72.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1855 | 10.92*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0520 | 2.06** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3329 | 4.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6229 | 6.60*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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