Russell Midcap Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
13.49%
1 Week
13.27%
1 Month
12.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 103% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.23 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0382 | 8.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.2053 | 11.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7730 | 45.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.2812 | 6.68*** |
| δpower | 1.2273 | 6.05*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0382 | 8.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2053 | 11.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7730 | 45.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2812 | 6.68*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2273 | 6.05*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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