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V-Lab

Russell Midcap Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.55%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Week

12.42%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Month

12.08%

decreased by 1.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Russell Midcap Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 104% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0387
33.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2055
46.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7729
180.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2853
26.73***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2145
23.77***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days