Russell Midcap Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
12.55%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
12.42%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Month
12.08%
decreased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 104% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.21 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0387 | 33.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2055 | 46.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7729 | 180.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2853 | 26.73*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2145 | 23.77*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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