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Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

55.39%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

55.04%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Month

53.72%

decreased by 1.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2015 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. The volatility power δ = 2.86 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifeδ = 2.86 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1689
1.25
αARCH0.0153
1.16
βGARCH0.9616
85.72***
γleverage-0.1777
-1.03
δpower2.8564
4.04***

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1689
1.25
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0153
1.16
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9616
85.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1777
-1.03
δ

power

Transformation power

2.8564
4.04***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days