Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
49.90%
1 Week
49.59%
1 Month
48.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2015 to Jun 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 229% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 2.99 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2016 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0135 | 4.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9600 | 341.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1966 | -3.66*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.9880 | 14.83*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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