V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
32.56%
1 Week
38.88%
1 Month
43.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 159% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6908 | 28.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1791 | 13.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4237 | -6.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0159 | 1.34 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0070 | 2.27** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9908 | 352.11*** |
Persistence:
0.658
Half-life:
2 days
Other Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices