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V-Lab

Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

32.56%

decreased by 12.94%

1 Week

38.88%

decreased by 6.62%

1 Month

43.08%

decreased by 2.42%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 159% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6908
28.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1791
13.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4237
-6.81***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0159
1.34
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0070
2.27**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9908
352.11***

Persistence:

0.658

Half-life:

2 days