V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
60.59%
increased by 1.61%
1 Week
66.98%
increased by 8.00%
1 Month
74.42%
increased by 15.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 149% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 9.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2238 | 10.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6363 | 26.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1338 | -3.55*** |
Persistence:
0.793
Half-life:
3 days
Other Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices