V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
62.29%
decreased by 2.09%
1 Week
67.87%
increased by 3.49%
1 Month
74.40%
increased by 10.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 2.39** |
| αARCH | 0.2265 | 2.54** |
| βGARCH | 0.6318 | 6.57*** |
| γleverage | -0.1354 | -0.89 |
0.791
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2265 | 2.54** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6318 | 6.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1354 | -0.89 |
Persistence:
0.791
Half-life:
3 days
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