V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
63.30%
decreased by 2.40%
1 Week
68.60%
increased by 2.90%
1 Month
74.88%
increased by 9.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 149% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 9.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2246 | 10.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6354 | 26.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1343 | -3.56*** |
Persistence:
0.793
Half-life:
3 days
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