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V-Lab

Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

60.59%

increased by 1.61%

1 Week

66.98%

increased by 8.00%

1 Month

74.42%

increased by 15.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 149% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
9.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2238
10.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6363
26.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1338
-3.55***

Persistence:

0.793

Half-life:

3 days