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Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

71.71%

increased by 9.47%

1 Week

73.75%

increased by 11.51%

1 Month

76.29%

increased by 14.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
2.39**
αARCH0.2265
2.54**
βGARCH0.6318
6.57***
γleverage-0.1354
-0.89

0.791

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.39**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2265
2.54**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6318
6.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1354
-0.89

Persistence:

0.791

Half-life:

3 days