Skip to main content
V-Lab

Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

63.30%

decreased by 2.40%

1 Week

68.60%

increased by 2.90%

1 Month

74.88%

increased by 9.18%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 149% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
9.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2246
10.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6354
26.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1343
-3.56***

Persistence:

0.793

Half-life:

3 days