V-Lab
National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
9.81%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
10.32%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
12.12%
increased by 2.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 221 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 99% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0218 | 21.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0735 | 20.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8871 | 425.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0724 | 10.60*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
221 days
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