V-Lab
National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
10.63%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
11.09%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
12.75%
increased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 242 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 98% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~242 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 98% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0213 | 5.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0737 | 5.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8874 | 106.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.0721 | 2.66*** |
0.997
Persistence242d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0213 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0737 | 5.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8874 | 106.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0721 | 2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
242 days
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