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V-Lab

National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

10.63%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

11.09%

increased by 0.30%

1 Month

12.75%

increased by 1.96%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 242 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 98% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~242 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 98% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0213
5.30***
αARCH0.0737
5.11***
βGARCH0.8874
106.87***
γleverage0.0721
2.66***

0.997

Persistence

242d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0213
5.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0737
5.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8874
106.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0721
2.66***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

242 days