National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.70%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
14.05%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
15.37%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 210 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 98% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0222 | 21.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0735 | 20.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8870 | 423.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0723 | 10.54*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
210 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices