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National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

15.79%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

16.09%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

17.18%

increased by 0.79%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 230 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 98% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~230 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 98% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0215
5.33***
αARCH0.0735
5.11***
βGARCH0.8874
107.01***
γleverage0.0722
2.66***

0.997

Persistence

230d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0215
5.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0735
5.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8874
107.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0722
2.66***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

230 days