National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.04%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
13.58%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
14.95%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 342% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0473 | 11.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7664 | 109.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1617 | 27.32*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0059 | 5.12*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0488 | 7.86*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9491 | 145.89*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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