V-Lab
National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
10.32%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
11.04%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
12.29%
increased by 1.74%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 339% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0474 | 11.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7685 | 110.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1608 | 27.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0055 | 5.10*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0476 | 7.99*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9505 | 152.59*** |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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