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V-Lab

National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

13.04%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

13.58%

increased by 0.22%

1 Month

14.95%

increased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 342% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0473
11.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7664
109.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1617
27.32***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0059
5.12***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0488
7.86***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9491
145.89***

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days