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National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

18.03%

increased by 1.32%

1 Week

18.23%

increased by 1.52%

1 Month

18.97%

increased by 2.26%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 174 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~174 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0193
5.16***
αARCH0.1046
10.98***
βGARCH0.8914
104.58***

0.996

Persistence

174d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0193
5.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1046
10.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8914
104.58***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

174 days