Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
17.41%
increased by 1.86%
1 Week
17.57%
increased by 2.02%
1 Month
18.16%
increased by 2.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0241 | 5.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.0925 | 9.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8969 | 96.68*** |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0241 | 5.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0925 | 9.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8969 | 96.68*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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