Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.95%
increased by 0.30%
1 Week
17.12%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
17.78%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 08:30 AM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2005 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~116 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0186 | 3.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.0670 | 6.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9271 | 86.96*** |
0.994
Persistence116d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0186 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0670 | 6.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9271 | 86.96*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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