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Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

16.95%

increased by 0.30%

1 Week

17.12%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

17.78%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 08:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~116 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0186
3.33***
αARCH0.0670
6.23***
βGARCH0.9271
86.96***

0.994

Persistence

116d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0186
3.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0670
6.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9271
86.96***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days