S&P/ASX 200 GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
12.18%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
12.30%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
12.71%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 01:02 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0188 | 6.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0970 | 9.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8810 | 84.33*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0188 | 6.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0970 | 9.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8810 | 84.33*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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