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S&P/ASX 200 GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

12.18%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

12.30%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

12.71%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 01:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/12/2024

to

10/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0188
6.94***
αARCH0.0970
9.69***
βGARCH0.8810
84.33***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0188
6.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0970
9.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8810
84.33***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days