Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P/ASX 200 GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

11.50%

increased by 0.43%

1 Week

11.65%

increased by 0.58%

1 Month

12.18%

increased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/ASX 200 GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 1992 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0188
6.93***
αARCH0.0973
9.69***
βGARCH0.8809
84.25***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0188
6.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0973
9.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8809
84.25***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days