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V-Lab

MSCI Asia Pacific GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

13.61%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

13.83%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

14.61%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0211
6.48***
αARCH0.1013
10.61***
βGARCH0.8865
98.94***

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0211
6.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1013
10.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8865
98.94***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days