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V-Lab

MSCI Asia Pacific GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

15.56%

increased by 1.91%

1 Week

15.71%

increased by 2.06%

1 Month

16.24%

increased by 2.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Asia Pacific GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0211
6.49***
αARCH0.1013
10.61***
βGARCH0.8865
99.01***

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0211
6.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1013
10.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8865
99.01***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days