MSCI Asia Pacific GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
15.56%
increased by 1.91%
1 Week
15.71%
increased by 2.06%
1 Month
16.24%
increased by 2.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0211 | 6.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.1013 | 10.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8865 | 99.01*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0211 | 6.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1013 | 10.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8865 | 99.01*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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