Russell Midcap Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
12.06%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
12.34%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
13.31%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0255 | 4.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.1136 | 9.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8668 | 67.32*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0255 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1136 | 9.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8668 | 67.32*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
Other Russell Midcap Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices