Russell Midcap Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
12.26%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
12.54%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
13.46%
increased by 2.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2004 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0255 | 4.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.1135 | 9.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8669 | 67.41*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0255 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1135 | 9.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8669 | 67.41*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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