EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
13.14%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
13.44%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
14.47%
increased by 1.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 39-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0281 | 3.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0942 | 10.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8883 | 93.08*** |
0.983
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0281 | 3.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0942 | 10.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8883 | 93.08*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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