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EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

16.50%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

16.68%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

17.34%

increased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.09 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0274
8.17***
αARCH0.0721
5.26***
βGARCH0.9200
94.36***
γleverage0.8210
4.81***
δpower1.0861
11.38***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0274
8.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0721
5.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9200
94.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8210
4.81***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0861
11.38***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days