V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
13.20%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
13.53%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
14.67%
increased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0276 | 32.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0721 | 21.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9199 | 376.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8218 | 19.18*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0857 | 45.47*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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