V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
16.50%
1 Week
16.68%
1 Month
17.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.09 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0274 | 8.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.0721 | 5.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9200 | 94.36*** |
| γleverage | 0.8210 | 4.81*** |
| δpower | 1.0861 | 11.38*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0274 | 8.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0721 | 5.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9200 | 94.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8210 | 4.81*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0861 | 11.38*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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