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V-Lab

Dubai Financial Market General Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026

1 Day

10.64%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

11.30%

increased by 0.55%

1 Month

13.55%

increased by 2.80%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dubai Financial Market General Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2004 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~123 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0311
4.94***
αARCH0.1369
8.77***
βGARCH0.8588
69.48***
γleverage0.0786
1.78*
δpower1.9571
9.48***

0.994

Persistence

123d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0311
4.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1369
8.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8588
69.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0786
1.78*
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9571
9.48***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

123 days