V-Lab
Dubai Financial Market General Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026
1 Day
10.64%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
11.30%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
13.55%
increased by 2.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2004 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~123 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0311 | 4.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.1369 | 8.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8588 | 69.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.0786 | 1.78* |
| δpower | 1.9571 | 9.48*** |
0.994
Persistence123d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0311 | 4.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1369 | 8.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8588 | 69.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0786 | 1.78* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9571 | 9.48*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
123 days
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