V-Lab
Dubai Financial Market General Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, August 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.56%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Week
14.92%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
16.17%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2004 to Aug 13, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8229 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1177 | 49.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9894 | 531.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9951 | 16.84*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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