V-Lab
Dubai Financial Market General Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 20th, 2026
1 Day
12.62%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
13.07%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
14.62%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2004 to Sep 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 5.01 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8110 | 1.35 |
| αARCH | 0.1182 | 12.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9894 | 133.38*** |
| νDF | 5.0094 | 4.21*** |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8110 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1182 | 12.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9894 | 133.38*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0094 | 4.21*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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