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Dubai Financial Market General Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 20th, 2026

1 Day

12.62%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

13.07%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

14.62%

increased by 1.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dubai Financial Market General Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2004 to Sep 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 5.01 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8110
1.35
αARCH0.1182
12.34***
βGARCH0.9894
133.38***
νDF5.0094
4.21***

0.989

Persistence

65d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8110
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1182
12.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9894
133.38***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0094
4.21***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days