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S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

16.08%

increased by 1.24%

1 Week

16.05%

increased by 1.21%

1 Month

15.97%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 8.18 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8959
2.11**
αARCH0.0819
9.06***
βGARCH0.9886
178.28***
νDF8.1770
1.56

0.989

Persistence

60d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8959
2.11**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0819
9.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9886
178.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1770
1.56

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days