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V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

10.73%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

10.85%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

11.27%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8942
8.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0820
36.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9886
708.64***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1441
6.25***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days