V-Lab
S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
12.43%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
12.49%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
12.73%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 08:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 8.16 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8949 | 2.11** |
| αARCH | 0.0821 | 9.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9885 | 177.54*** |
| νDF | 8.1609 | 1.56 |
0.989
Persistence60d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8949 | 2.11** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0821 | 9.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 177.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1609 | 1.56 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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