S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
13.56%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
13.60%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
13.76%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 9.22 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.9330 | 2.19** |
| αscore | 0.0879 | 8.82*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9885 | 180.74*** |
| νDF | 9.2236 | 1.34 |
0.988
Persistence60d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.9330 | 2.19** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0879 | 8.82*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 180.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2236 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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