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S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

13.56%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

13.60%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

13.76%

decreased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 9.22 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.9330
2.19**
αscore0.0879
8.82***
βpersistence0.9885
180.74***
νDF9.2236
1.34

0.988

Persistence

60d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.9330
2.19**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0879
8.82***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9885
180.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.2236
1.34

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days