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V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

9.10%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

9.28%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

9.90%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8960
8.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0819
36.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9886
706.66***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1156
6.27***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days