S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
9.10%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
9.28%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
9.90%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8960 | 8.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0819 | 36.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 706.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1156 | 6.27*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices