V-Lab
S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.73%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
10.85%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
11.27%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8942 | 8.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0820 | 36.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 708.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1441 | 6.25*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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