V-Lab
S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
10.36%
increased by 0.50%
1 Week
10.49%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
10.95%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8944 | 8.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0820 | 36.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 705.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1069 | 6.29*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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