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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

12.43%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

12.49%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

12.73%

decreased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 08:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 8.16 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8949
2.11**
αARCH0.0821
9.06***
βGARCH0.9885
177.54***
νDF8.1609
1.56

0.989

Persistence

60d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8949
2.11**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0821
9.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9885
177.54***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1609
1.56

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days