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S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026

1 Day

15.91%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Week

15.90%

decreased by 1.03%

1 Month

15.85%

decreased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 09:54 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/13/2024

to

11/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 13, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with ν = 9.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifeν = 9.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.9379
2.17**
αscore0.0879
8.84***
βpersistence0.9885
180.88***
νDF9.2121
1.35

0.989

Persistence

60d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.9379
2.17**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0879
8.84***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9885
180.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.2121
1.35

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days