S&P/TSX 60 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.11%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
15.17%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
15.40%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0126 | 2.47** |
| αARCH | 0.2326 | 16.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7576 | 69.04*** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0126 | 2.47** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2326 | 16.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7576 | 69.04*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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