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V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

15.11%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

15.17%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

15.40%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0126
2.47**
αARCH0.2326
16.16***
βGARCH0.7576
69.04***

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0126
2.47**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2326
16.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7576
69.04***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days