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V-Lab

S&P/TSX 60 Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

10.58%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

10.77%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

11.46%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P/TSX 60 Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0126
2.46**
αARCH0.2325
16.15***
βGARCH0.7576
68.97***

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0126
2.46**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2325
16.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7576
68.97***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days