V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.40%
increased by 0.83%
1 Week
12.85%
increased by 1.28%
1 Month
14.38%
increased by 2.81%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 12:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0303 | 2.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.2227 | 14.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7649 | 63.58*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0303 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2227 | 14.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7649 | 63.58*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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