Russell 2000 Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
14.46%
1 Week
13.86%
1 Month
12.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.62 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0455 | 8.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1898 | 14.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7862 | 53.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.2785 | 9.12*** |
| δpower | 0.6174 | 5.60*** |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0455 | 8.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1898 | 14.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7862 | 53.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2785 | 9.12*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6174 | 5.60*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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