V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
13.63%
1 Week
13.14%
1 Month
11.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0456 | 8.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1900 | 14.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7858 | 53.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.2790 | 9.13*** |
| δpower | 0.6148 | 5.58*** |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0456 | 8.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1900 | 14.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7858 | 53.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2790 | 9.13*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6148 | 5.58*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
Other Russell 2000 Index Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on Equity Indices