Russell 2000 Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.64%
increased by 0.66%
1 Week
17.49%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
14.62%
decreased by 3.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0457 | 33.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1895 | 59.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7862 | 212.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2810 | 36.55*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6073 | 22.05*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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