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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

13.63%

increased by 0.43%

1 Week

13.14%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

11.85%

decreased by 1.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 42% more than positive returnsδ = 0.61 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0456
8.30***
αARCH0.1900
14.98***
βGARCH0.7858
53.22***
γleverage0.2790
9.13***
δpower0.6148
5.58***

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0456
8.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1900
14.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7858
53.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2790
9.13***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6148
5.58***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days