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V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

18.64%

increased by 0.66%

1 Week

17.49%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

14.62%

decreased by 3.36%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Russell 2000 Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0457
33.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1895
59.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7862
212.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2810
36.55***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6073
22.05***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days