Russell 2000 Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.96%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
17.81%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
20.26%
increased by 2.91%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7706 | 6.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1077 | 10.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8555 | 72.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0359 | 3.86*** |
| γ2 | -0.0479 | -3.35*** |
| γ3 | 0.0029 | 0.27 |
| γ4 | 0.0228 | 2.28** |
| γ5 | -0.0197 | -1.43 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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