V-Lab
CAC 40 Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
11.81%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
12.18%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
13.37%
increased by 1.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1171 | 7.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1002 | 10.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8766 | 80.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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