Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
20.79%
decreased by 4.25%
1 Week
25.70%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
30.48%
increased by 5.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7622 | 2.24** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4704 | 5.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3013 | 3.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.5805 | -2.73*** |
| γ2 | 2.7225 | 1.77* |
| γ3 | 0.5810 | 0.49 |
| γ4 | -2.0597 | -2.00** |
| γ5 | 2.4427 | 2.09** |
| γ6 | -1.6409 | -1.44 |
| γ7 | 1.1911 | 1.08 |
| γ8 | -1.1764 | -1.20 |
| γ9 | 1.3333 | 1.83* |
| γ10 | -2.7399 | -2.01** |
Persistence:
0.772
Half-life:
3 days
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