V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
35.20%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
35.15%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
34.98%
decreased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1585 | 3.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0120 | 2.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9641 | 338.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0579 | -0.96 |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 12.51*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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