Skip to main content
V-Lab

Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

35.20%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Week

35.15%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

34.98%

decreased by 0.48%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1585
3.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0120
2.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9641
338.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0579
-0.96
δ

power

Transformation power

3.0000
12.51***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days