V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
30.69%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
40.26%
increased by 8.66%
1 Month
49.15%
increased by 17.55%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8720 | 2.19** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4712 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2990 | 3.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.9623 | -3.49*** |
| γ2 | 2.7914 | 3.27*** |
| γ3 | -1.5977 | -2.05** |
| γ4 | 1.2149 | 1.75* |
| γ5 | -0.4924 | -0.94 |
| γ6 | 0.2622 | 0.55 |
| γ7 | -0.2997 | -0.55 |
| γ8 | 0.0570 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.770
Half-life:
3 days
Other Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices