V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
34.19%
decreased by 9.76%
1 Week
40.97%
decreased by 2.98%
1 Month
47.85%
increased by 3.90%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8803 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4753 | 5.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3006 | 3.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.9435 | -3.50*** |
| γ2 | 2.7643 | 3.30*** |
| γ3 | -1.5865 | -2.07** |
| γ4 | 1.2205 | 1.78* |
| γ5 | -0.5105 | -1.00 |
| γ6 | 0.2897 | 0.65 |
| γ7 | -0.3658 | -0.74 |
| γ8 | 0.1379 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.776
Half-life:
3 days
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