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V-Lab

Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

34.19%

decreased by 9.76%

1 Week

40.97%

decreased by 2.98%

1 Month

47.85%

increased by 3.90%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8803
2.17**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4753
5.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3006
3.09***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.9435
-3.50***
γ22.7643
3.30***
γ3-1.5865
-2.07**
γ41.2205
1.78*
γ5-0.5105
-1.00
γ60.2897
0.65
γ7-0.3658
-0.74
γ80.1379
0.33

Persistence:

0.776

Half-life:

3 days