V-Lab
Caracas Stock Exchange Stock Market Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
62.45%
increased by 28.83%
1 Week
58.37%
increased by 24.75%
1 Month
53.10%
increased by 19.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8901 | 2.18** |
| αARCH | 0.4717 | 5.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3027 | 3.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.8917 | -3.47*** |
| γ2 | 2.6953 | 3.31*** |
| γ3 | -1.5618 | -2.12** |
| γ4 | 1.2186 | 1.83* |
| γ5 | -0.5196 | -1.05 |
| γ6 | 0.2945 | 0.72 |
| γ7 | -0.3840 | -0.88 |
| γ8 | 0.1658 | 0.44 |
0.774
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8901 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4717 | 5.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3027 | 3.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.8917 | -3.47*** |
| γ2 | 2.6953 | 3.31*** |
| γ3 | -1.5618 | -2.12** |
| γ4 | 1.2186 | 1.83* |
| γ5 | -0.5196 | -1.05 |
| γ6 | 0.2945 | 0.72 |
| γ7 | -0.3840 | -0.88 |
| γ8 | 0.1658 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.774
Half-life:
3 days
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