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Tadawul All Share TASI Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Saturday, October 17th, 2026

1 Day

16.99%

increased by 3.48%

1 Week

17.18%

increased by 3.67%

1 Month

17.86%

increased by 4.35%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 05:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Oct 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8718
3.42***
αARCH0.1711
11.45***
βGARCH0.8149
62.34***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0096
-2.69***
γ20.0122
2.68***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8718
3.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1711
11.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8149
62.34***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0096
-2.69***
γ20.0122
2.68***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days