Tadawul All Share TASI Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
8.37%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
9.21%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
11.56%
increased by 3.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8205 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1699 | 10.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8026 | 54.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0420 | 1.10 |
| γ2 | -0.0998 | -1.89* |
| γ3 | 0.0882 | 3.14*** |
| γ4 | -0.0394 | -1.63 |
| γ5 | 0.0133 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
Other Tadawul All Share TASI Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices