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V-Lab

Tadawul All Share TASI Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

8.37%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

9.21%

increased by 0.69%

1 Month

11.56%

increased by 3.04%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tadawul All Share TASI Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 1998 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8205
3.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1699
10.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8026
54.35***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0420
1.10
γ2-0.0998
-1.89*
γ30.0882
3.14***
γ4-0.0394
-1.63
γ50.0133
0.81

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days