Russell 1000 Value Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.54%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
11.78%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
12.57%
increased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9747 | 7.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1154 | 9.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8631 | 70.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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