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Russell 1000 Value Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

9.66%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

10.01%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

11.16%

increased by 1.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Value Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9816
7.88***
αARCH0.1152
9.71***
βGARCH0.8632
70.43***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
1.04

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9816
7.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1152
9.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8632
70.43***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
1.04

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days