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V-Lab

Russell 1000 Value Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

10.82%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

11.34%

increased by 0.31%

1 Month

12.77%

increased by 1.74%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Russell 1000 Value Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8546
254.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1901
47.48***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0209
7.36***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1002
8.92***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8783
63.98***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days