V-Lab
Russell 1000 Value Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
10.82%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
11.34%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
12.77%
increased by 1.74%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8546 | 254.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1901 | 47.48*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0209 | 7.36*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1002 | 8.92*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8783 | 63.98*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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