Russell 1000 Value Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
9.96%
increased by 1.76%
1 Week
10.32%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
11.47%
increased by 3.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 209% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 209% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0234 | 5.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.0920 | 5.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7896 | 62.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.1926 | 6.20*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0234 | 5.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0920 | 5.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7896 | 62.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1926 | 6.20*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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