Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.02%
increased by 0.46%
1 Week
15.23%
increased by 0.67%
1 Month
16.01%
increased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 1993 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 110% more than positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0217 | 24.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0927 | 31.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8466 | 376.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1023 | 18.17*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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