Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

13.25%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

13.67%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

15.00%

increased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 1994 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 152% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 152% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0399
7.88***
αARCH0.0997
7.52***
βGARCH0.7997
77.68***
γleverage0.1520
6.20***

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0399
7.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0997
7.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7997
77.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1520
6.20***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days