S&P SmallCap 600 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
14.01%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Week
14.38%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
15.56%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 153% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0403 | 31.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0996 | 29.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7995 | 309.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1524 | 24.77*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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