S&P SmallCap 600 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
13.25%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
13.67%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
15.00%
increased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 1994 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 152% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 152% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0399 | 7.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0997 | 7.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7997 | 77.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.1520 | 6.20*** |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0399 | 7.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0997 | 7.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7997 | 77.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1520 | 6.20*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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