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V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

15.06%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

15.36%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

16.11%

increased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0194
2.56**
βGARCH0.8605
84.34***
γleverage0.1426
10.99***
λ₁tau intercept0.0020
1.80*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0152
4.02***
λ₃tau persistence0.9834
230.20***

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0194
2.56**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8605
84.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1426
10.99***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0020
1.80*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0152
4.02***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9834
230.20***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days