Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.64%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

15.26%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

16.92%

increased by 1.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0189
9.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8610
321.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1435
44.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0017
7.90***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0137
13.32***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9851
867.95***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days