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V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

16.49%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

16.78%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

17.54%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0191
2.52**
βGARCH0.8610
84.61***
γleverage0.1430
11.01***
λ₁tau intercept0.0018
1.76*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0142
3.97***
λ₃tau persistence0.9846
244.98***

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0191
2.52**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8610
84.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1430
11.01***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0018
1.76*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0142
3.97***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9846
244.98***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days