V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
15.46%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
15.90%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
17.02%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0190 | 2.51** |
| βGARCH | 0.8610 | 84.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.1431 | 11.01*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0018 | 1.76* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0141 | 3.97*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9847 | 246.29*** |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0190 | 2.51** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8610 | 84.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1431 | 11.01*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0018 | 1.76* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0141 | 3.97*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9847 | 246.29*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices