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S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

15.10%

increased by 1.83%

1 Week

15.35%

increased by 2.08%

1 Month

16.05%

increased by 2.78%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow61
αARCH0.0194
2.56**
βGARCH0.8606
84.39***
γleverage0.1423
10.98***
λ₁tau intercept0.0020
1.81*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0153
4.04***
λ₃tau persistence0.9834
230.84***

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0194
2.56**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8606
84.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1423
10.98***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0020
1.81*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0153
4.04***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9834
230.84***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days