V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.64%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
15.26%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
16.92%
increased by 1.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0189 | 9.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8610 | 321.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1435 | 44.23*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0017 | 7.90*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0137 | 13.32*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9851 | 867.95*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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