V-Lab
S&P SmallCap 600 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.60%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
15.04%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
16.18%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.0194 | 2.55** |
| βGARCH | 0.8606 | 84.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.1428 | 10.99*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0020 | 1.79* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0149 | 3.99*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9838 | 234.07*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0194 | 2.55** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8606 | 84.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1428 | 10.99*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0020 | 1.79* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0149 | 3.99*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9838 | 234.07*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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