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V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

15.86%

increased by 1.18%

1 Week

16.08%

increased by 1.40%

1 Month

16.85%

increased by 2.17%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 300% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.94 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0271
34.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0853
47.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9124
504.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6288
42.48***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9371
35.98***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days