S&P SmallCap 600 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026
1 Day
13.74%
1 Week
14.04%
1 Month
15.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 12:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 297% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.96 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0268 | 8.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0851 | 11.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9124 | 126.26*** |
| γleverage | 0.6175 | 10.50*** |
| δpower | 0.9570 | 9.08*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0268 | 8.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0851 | 11.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9124 | 126.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6175 | 10.50*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9570 | 9.08*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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