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S&P SmallCap 600 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026

1 Day

13.74%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

14.04%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

15.08%

increased by 1.28%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 12:08 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/03/2024

to

11/03/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 297% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.96 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 297% more than positive returnsδ = 0.96 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0268
8.65***
αARCH0.0851
11.84***
βGARCH0.9124
126.26***
γleverage0.6175
10.50***
δpower0.9570
9.08***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0268
8.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0851
11.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9124
126.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6175
10.50***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9570
9.08***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days