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V-Lab

S&P SmallCap 600 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

14.03%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

14.38%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

15.52%

increased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P SmallCap 600 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.57) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0073
5.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0928
51.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8856
460.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5651
42.58***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days