Blom Stock Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.27%
1 Week
14.91%
1 Month
17.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 1996 to Apr 24, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.013 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0218 | 9.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1800 | 16.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8331 | 94.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1481 | -5.98*** |
Persistence:
1.013
Half-life:
-
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