Blom Stock Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.72%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
27.52%
increased by 4.69%
1 Month
36.07%
increased by 13.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 1996 to Apr 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6052 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3390 | 8.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5667 | 15.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2711 | 3.23*** |
| γ2 | -0.4083 | -3.47*** |
| γ3 | 0.2045 | 2.81*** |
| γ4 | -0.1781 | -2.61*** |
| γ5 | 0.1906 | 3.14*** |
| γ6 | -0.0241 | -0.42 |
| γ7 | -0.0601 | -0.90 |
| γ8 | -0.0446 | -0.81 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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