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V-Lab

Blom Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

19.42%

increased by 1.03%

1 Week

19.77%

increased by 1.38%

1 Month

21.10%

increased by 2.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Blom Stock Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 1996 to Apr 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 406 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

17.4996
8.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1547
163.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9983
5,145.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6312
329.15***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

406 days