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V-Lab

Blom Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

30.88%

increased by 5.69%

1 Week

31.08%

increased by 5.89%

1 Month

31.83%

increased by 6.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Blom Stock Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 1996 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 382 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~382 daysv = 2.64 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst16.9774
2.15**
αARCH0.1536
41.11***
βGARCH0.9982
1,208.46***
νDF2.6395
80.40***

0.998

Persistence

382d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

16.9774
2.15**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1536
41.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9982
1,208.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6395
80.40***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

382 days