Blom Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.42%
increased by 1.03%
1 Week
19.77%
increased by 1.38%
1 Month
21.10%
increased by 2.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 1996 to Apr 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 406 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.4996 | 8.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1547 | 163.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9983 | 5,145.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6312 | 329.15*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
406 days
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