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V-Lab

Blom Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

21.84%

increased by 0.92%

1 Week

22.15%

increased by 1.23%

1 Month

23.33%

increased by 2.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Blom Stock Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 1996 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 386 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~386 daysv = 2.64 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst16.9409
2.15**
αARCH0.1530
41.04***
βGARCH0.9982
1,221.79***
νDF2.6446
79.84***

0.998

Persistence

386d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

16.9409
2.15**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1530
41.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9982
1,221.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6446
79.84***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

386 days