V-Lab
Blom Stock Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
30.88%
1 Week
31.08%
1 Month
31.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 1996 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 382 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 16.9774 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.1536 | 41.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9982 | 1,208.46*** |
| νDF | 2.6395 | 80.40*** |
0.998
Persistence382d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.9774 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1536 | 41.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9982 | 1,208.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6395 | 80.40*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
382 days
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