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V-Lab

Blom Stock Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

30.00%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

37.13%

increased by 7.05%

1 Month

49.60%

increased by 19.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Blom Stock Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 19, 1996 to Apr 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6380
3.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3390
8.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5675
15.77***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.2841
3.42***
γ2-0.4299
-3.69***
γ30.2197
3.03***
γ4-0.1903
-2.79***
γ50.2011
3.31***
γ6-0.0356
-0.61
γ7-0.0421
-0.57
γ8-0.0859
-0.89

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days