Blom Stock Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.00%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
37.13%
increased by 7.05%
1 Month
49.60%
increased by 19.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 19, 1996 to Apr 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6380 | 3.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3390 | 8.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5675 | 15.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.2841 | 3.42*** |
| γ2 | -0.4299 | -3.69*** |
| γ3 | 0.2197 | 3.03*** |
| γ4 | -0.1903 | -2.79*** |
| γ5 | 0.2011 | 3.31*** |
| γ6 | -0.0356 | -0.61 |
| γ7 | -0.0421 | -0.57 |
| γ8 | -0.0859 | -0.89 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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