Mauritius Stock Exchange SEMDEX Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
7.33%
increased by 0.65%
1 Week
7.84%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
9.09%
increased by 2.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9641 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1659 | 6.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7733 | 25.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2337 | 3.84*** |
| γ2 | -0.3536 | -3.58*** |
| γ3 | 0.1936 | 2.72*** |
| γ4 | -0.0944 | -1.43 |
| γ5 | 0.0663 | 1.01 |
| γ6 | -0.1717 | -3.56*** |
| γ7 | 0.2239 | 5.16*** |
| γ8 | -0.0744 | -1.48 |
| γ9 | -0.1040 | -1.72* |
| γ10 | 0.2094 | 3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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