V-Lab
Mauritius Stock Exchange SEMDEX Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.30%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
4.56%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
5.23%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7344 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1652 | 6.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7756 | 26.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2072 | 3.29*** |
| γ2 | -0.3122 | -3.06*** |
| γ3 | 0.1644 | 2.24** |
| γ4 | -0.0671 | -1.00 |
| γ5 | 0.0430 | 0.64 |
| γ6 | -0.1556 | -3.18*** |
| γ7 | 0.2209 | 5.05*** |
| γ8 | -0.0962 | -1.91* |
| γ9 | -0.0395 | -0.65 |
| γ10 | 0.0480 | 0.94 |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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