V-Lab
Mauritius Stock Exchange SEMDEX Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
5.18%
increased by 0.51%
1 Week
5.46%
increased by 0.79%
1 Month
6.36%
increased by 1.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0077 | 21.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1290 | 33.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8548 | 249.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0088 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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