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V-Lab

Mauritius Stock Exchange SEMDEX Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

5.84%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

6.06%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

6.73%

increased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Mauritius Stock Exchange SEMDEX Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. The volatility power δ = 2.65 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0050
13.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1248
21.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8146
157.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0158
1.59
δ

power

Transformation power

2.6546
29.75***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

35 days