Mauritius Stock Exchange SEMDEX Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5.84%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
6.06%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
6.73%
increased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. The volatility power δ = 2.65 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0050 | 13.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1248 | 21.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8146 | 157.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0158 | 1.59 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.6546 | 29.75*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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