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V-Lab

Dow Jones Transportation Average APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

20.52%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

20.66%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

21.13%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Dow Jones Transportation Average APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 231% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0346
23.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0740
26.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9136
356.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3645
14.06***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5666
41.15***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days